NEWS
Spring forecast for the United States
AccuWeather Global Weather Center – February 2, 2021 – Punxsutawney Phil has emerged from his burrow and has declared six more weeks of winter, but that prognostication may not come to fruition across the entire U.S.
Winter weather has reached every corner of the country this season, ranging from waves of early-season storms across the entire West Coast to snow and ice in the Southeast and the first blizzard in years for part of New England. While there is still plenty of winter weather in the pipeline, the light is starting to appear at the end of the tunnel with the arrival of spring right around the corner.
Meteorological spring officially begins on Tuesday, March 1, and astronomical spring begins on Sunday, March 20, but the changing of the seasons may not translate to the abrupt end of cold and snowy weather across the United States.
AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters, led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, has been analyzing weather patterns around the globe to make a forecast for the coming months. In crafting a long-range forecast, Pastelok and his team employ a much different method than what’s relied upon to make a short-term forecast for the next three to five days.
One way that the team of forecasters forged the spring forecast is with the help of analogs. Analogs are years in the past when the weather patterns around the globe were similar to what is currently happening. Studying the past gives forecasters clues to what may unfold in the future.
Accuweather.com has a region by region breakdown of its spring forecast.
Drought to maintain grip on western US
The back-and-forth weather pattern along the West Coast this winter will persist into the spring, including the potential for late-season storms across California.
The winter started off strong for the drought-stricken West Coast with waves of storms unloading widespread rain and yards of mountain snow across Washington, Oregon and California. This pattern broke in January, raising concerns once again about whether the drought would worsen before conditions improve.
The stormy pattern is projected to resume later in February and into March, according to Pastelok, delivering much-needed precipitation to the region. However, this will not be a drought-ending scenario that many are hoping for, especially if the storms take a more northerly track. This would direct the storms into the Pacific Northwest and away from Southern California and the interior Southwest.
“There’s still an opportunity for a little bit of extra rain through April to contribute more to water reservoirs for the late spring and summer,” Pastelok said.
As of Jan. 27, 2022, 21% of the western U.S. was experiencing extreme drought and 4% of the region was under exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This is a reduction from one year prior when more than 46% of the region was experiencing an extreme drought and 24% was under exceptional drought.
Despite this improvement, most of the region is still experiencing long-term drought hardships.
The worst of the drought conditions through the spring is projected to focus on the Great Basin, Four Corners and into the High Plains. This means that conditions could get worse before they get better, including the water tables that feed into Lake Mead, which in 2021 hit its lowest level since the construction of the Hoover Dam.
These meteorological breadcrumbs have indicated that this spring could feature unusually late winter storms, both along the East Coast and West Coast, and even the development of an out-of-season tropical system.
Some moisture could make it into the interior Southwest if a few storms take a more southerly track in March and even as late as April, but it will not be enough to alleviate the long-term drought, Pastelok said.
As a result, much of the region will experience a warmer-than-normal spring, including Phoenix, Las Vegas and Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Last year, Phoenix kicked off April with 13 consecutive 90-degree days. While such a feat is hard to duplicate in back-to-back years, the anticipated warmth cannot rule out another extended streak of 90-degree days in the Valley of the Sun.
The early arrival of spring warmth across the interior Southwest will be followed up by a summer preview in May before the official start of meteorological summer on June 1.
T
The City of Bowie and the Montague County Emergency Communications team announced a winter storm watch has been issued from late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. It includes the following counties: Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-Comanche
* WHAT…Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 3 and 6 inches and ice accumulations
around one tenth of an inch possible.
* WHERE…Portions of north central and northeast Texas.
* WHEN…From late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon.
* IMPACTS…Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the
Thursday morning and evening commutes.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Wintry precipitation will start early
Thursday morning and increase in intensity and coverage through
the day Thursday into Thursday night before tapering off during
the day Friday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
Persons should consider delaying travel during this time. If travel
is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking
a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire
chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra
clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that
would help you survive in case you become stranded.
AUSTIN – Governor Greg Abbott today directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to activate state emergency response resources ahead of severe winter weather expected to impact the state this week.
“The State of Texas is working around-the-clock to ensure Texans have the resources and support needed as severe winter weather impacts communities across Texas,” said Governor Abbott. “As temperatures begin to drop below freezing and regions of Texas face snow, ice, and freezing rain, it is crucial that everyone remain weather-aware, check DriveTexas.org before traveling, and heed the guidance of state and local officials. Texans can find the warming center nearest them at tdem.texas.gov/warm. I thank emergency management personnel and first responders for working tirelessly to help Texans prepare and stay safe during this winter weather.”
According to the National Weather Service, temperatures at or below freezing are expected across large areas of the state. Some areas may face disruptive snow, ice, and freezing rain, causing potentially hazardous travel conditions through the rest of the week.
Over the weekend, more than 700 Texas Department of Transportation personnel prepared for winter weather by pre-treating roads, bridges, and overpasses with over 500,000 gallons of brine and approximately 800 cubic yards of granular material.
At the direction of Governor Abbott, TDEM has activated the following state emergency response resources to support winter weather response operations:
- Texas Department of Transportation: Winter weather roadway equipment and crews pre-treating and treating roadways; personnel and equipment to assist with traffic control and road closures
- Texas Division of Emergency Management: Incident Management Teams; personnel working with local partners to update warming center maps
- Texas A&M Forest Service: Saw crews; motor graders and personnel to assist with snow/ice clearance
- Texas National Guard: High-profile vehicles and personnel responding to support stranded motorists
Additionally, the following state emergency response resources have been placed on standby for deployment as needed:
- Public Utility Commission of Texas: Power outage monitoring and coordinating with utility providers across the threat area
- Railroad Commission of Texas: Monitoring of the state’s natural gas supply and communication with the oil and gas industry
- Texas Commission on Environmental Quality: Air/water/wastewater monitoring
- Texas Department of State Health Services (Texas Emergency Medical Task Force): Winter Weather Packages including medics and ambulances
- Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service: Disaster assessment and recovery agents
- Texas Animal Health Commission: Coordinating animal/agricultural resource needs
- Texas Department of Public Safety: Texas Highway Patrol Troopers to patrol Texas roadways
- Texas Parks & Wildlife Department: Game Wardens to support local law enforcement; high-profile vehicles to assist stranded motorists
- Texas Department of Information Resources: Monitoring technology infrastructure
- Texas Education Agency: Monitoring school district needs across the state
Texans are urged to monitor local forecasts, check road conditions before traveling on roadways, and follow instructions from emergency officials.
Texans can access winter weather safety tips by visiting TexasReady.gov, locate warming centers opened and operated by local officials at tdem.texas.gov/warm, and check road conditions at DriveTexas.org.
All 12 TxDOT maintenance offices spent today pre-treating
bridges and overpasses with brine in the Wichita Falls District.
Crews in the largest cities sprayed brine on secondary highways and roads first before moving
onto the primary freeways. Employees transformed more than 86 dump trucks into snowplows
and adding brine tanks and sand spreaders.
Tuesday will be spent laying down brine on all primary high traffic roadways and making more
brine for the holding tanks and our tanker trucks.
TxDOT crews are ready to go on 12-hour around the clock shifts.
Motorists can obtain travel information, road conditions and see 15 Wichita Falls traffic cameras and 1 Vernon camera by visiting DriveTexas.org or calling (800) 452-9292. Traffic cameras are
also at TxDOT.Gov.
Remember to follow the Wichita Falls District in our newly created Facebook page,
www.Facebook.com/TxDOTWichitaFalls and on Twitter, www.Twitter.com/TxDOTWF
If you experience an emergency on the road, call 9-1-1 for help and stay buckled up inside your vehicle.
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